Q4 2022 Equity Market Observations

Topics: , ,

Published on October 17, 2022

| 4 min read

Valerie Azuelos, Managing Director, Client Portfolio Manager

Share:
The third quarter started on a hopeful note as equity markets rallied in July. However, equity markets resumed their decline mid-quarter as fears grew that central banks’ aggressive monetary policies would lead to a global recession. The quarter finished in negative territory, recording their third consecutive quarter of losses.

Campaign_EMSM_chart_1

Drawdown Frequency

YTD equity markets are down -25%. In nearly 100 years, the S&P 500 has seen only 15 drawdowns greater than 15%. What’s notable, however, is that three of those 15 have occurred in just the last four years, five in the last 20 years. Equity investors must be keenly aware of this drawdown frequency, as downturns require higher positive returns to break even.

Moreover, the higher portfolio volatility translates into higher uncertainty about funding future liabilities. For many corporate treasurers, it may also directly impact balance sheets, drawing scrutiny from investors, creditors, analysts, and the public.

Campaign_EMSM_chart_2

Cross-Asset Class Volatility

Equity volatility is still relatively low, given historical observations and relative to today’s bond and FX volatility. Bond and currency volatility are rising to new highs as measured by the MOVE Index and CVIX Index. It’s challenging to think that the VIX index, which is a proxy for equity volatility, won’t sharply rise too. We are studying the volatility relationship across asset classes closely.

Implied Volatility in Equity Bond and Currency Markets

Capital is Still Concentrated

It’s also clear that even though capital concentration has stabilized in U.S. markets, the weight of the top ten stocks by capitalization remains high after peaking at the end of the first quarter. The top of the market, like Apple, Tesla, and Microsoft, is consensus positioning that remains vulnerable. We remain skeptical that leadership returns to these names after all the dust settles in equity markets.

Weight of the top 10 stocks by market capitalization

Conclusion

Given the uncertainty about the magnitude and frequency of drawdowns, we are actively exploring strategies that combine our understanding of stock price volatility with hedging signals and tactical rotations informed by cross-asset class volatility. We believe such a combination may be necessary to ensure core equity strategies are able to navigate tomorrow’s equity markets.

Download the eBook

We must look beyond conventional narratives and risk metrics in today’s markets. So each quarter, Intech examines equity market stability through the lens of the Intech Equity Market Stress Monitor® ― a collection of five reliable metrics of market strain that can help you gain additional insight into market risk regimes.

Download the Q4 2022 Equity Market Stress Monitor Report Framing Today’s Market Risks Read Now

 

The views presented are for general informational purposes only and are not intended as investment advice, as an offer or solicitation of an offer to sell or buy, or as an endorsement, recommendation, or sponsorship of any company, security, advisory service, or fund. Nor do they purport to address the financial objectives or specific investment needs of any individual reader, investor, or organization. The views are subject to change at any time based upon market or other conditions, are current as of the date indicated, and may be superseded by subsequent market events or other conditions. The information, analyses and/or opinions expressed are for general information only, and are not intended to provide any specific financial, economic, tax, legal, investment advice, or recommendations for any investor. It should not relied on as the sole basis for investment decisions. While every attempt is made to ensure that all information is accurate, there is no representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the accuracy and completeness of the statements or any information contained in this report. Any liability therefore (including in respect of direct, indirect, or consequential loss or damage) is expressly disclaimed. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Investing involves risk, including fluctuation in value, the possible loss of principal, and total loss of investment.